An Evaluation of Project Risk Dynamics in Sino-Africa Public Infrastructure Delivery; A Causal Loop and Interpretive Structural Modelling Approach (ISM-CLD)

Africa’s growth in public infrastructure provision has been fueled by the collective effort of government authority and foreign private investors. China, through state-owned corporations, become one leading financier springing up numerous projects transport, energy, oil gas, water, sewage sectors Africa. Infrastructure procurement developing countries comes with complexities uncertainties. While Sino-Africa transnational public–private partnerships (TPPP) are becoming an increasingly popular route for procurement, their specific project risks dynamics not yet fully understood due to typical assessment risk autonomously. This paper identifies pertinent TPPPs applies system thinking evaluating behaviour dynamics. An extensive review literature expert opinion employing semi-structured interviews was adopted identification factors. Additionally, study applied causal loop interpretive structural modelling as integrated approach from a systems perspective. Results indicate that factors associated interactive portray curious systemic behaviour. Risk like force majeure others governance structure stability host African country most influential, occurrence could inhibit success. The recommends conjunction conventional impact, can be evaluate comprehend interactions amongst will improve efficiency fair allocation treatment conduit success promote win–win partnership actors.